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CBS Exit Poll- Either Democrat would have won in '08

Now that the elections are over, it does not hurt to read some of these very interesting Post-Election surveys. Among them were how President-Elect Barack Obama won the highest income voting bracket of $200,000K & above. Another amazing stat was how President-Elect Obama won the Catholic vote despite a very hard push by the Catholic church on the Pro-Life issue. Exit polling also showed that Jews & Muslims both gave President-Elect Obama a landslide victory in their community. Another was Obama's success in penetrating the once key solidly republican Cuban community of Florida. If President Obama can repeat that performance again in Florida in 2012, the GOP will have a very tough time carrying Florida.

Another fascinating exit poll was done by CBS & released today.

It showed that if Sen. Hillary Clinton was the nominee, she would have also easily beat Senator McCain for the Presidency by 9%.
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/11/12/ politics/horserace/entry4596620.shtml

It was also great to see the virtually all the average pollings done from realclear, 538 & others were all pretty close to the actual outcome.

At the end of the day, this was truly our year as democrats. It would have been a miracle for any Republican to have won in this environment.  With that said, the win of President-elect Obama was the most exciting & truly touching victory ever. Any Obama supporter will never forget that feeling for the rest of their life.

Lastly, a Gallup poll today shows that many conservatives are happy so far with what they see from President-Elect Obama. His team looks prepared, professional & efficient. Its pretty impressive.
http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politi cs/blog/2008/11/obama_gets_large_nod_fro m_cons.html

Rev. Wright Ads Start running in PA,OH & FL

RNC Trust PAC just announced that they will start running Rev. Wright ads in PA,OH & FL. The TV ad links Sen. Obama to the controversial preacher for 20 years. It also shows Wright's famous "God Damn America" sermon.

I thought the Republican Party  would shock me for once &  decide not to go the Racial angle for 2008. But I guess I should have known better.

Will this work ? Personally, it may get the poll number to low single digits by election day in PA & OH. But I don't think its enough to alter the race. If we did not have this "Economic Collapse", then I may be a little worried. While in FL, since it is pretty much a dead heat, anything is possible.

The key today compared to the swiftboating of 2008 is the lessons learned. Especially with Obama's financial advantage compared to 2004. I'm pretty sure Axelrod will be flooding PA,OH & FL will Obama closing positive ads.

Nonetheless, its something to keep an eye on. Especially if the national media starts talking about Rev. Wright's relationship with Senator Obama for 20 years in this last 8 days.

The GOP is one hell of a party. You have no ideas left to solve our problems. So they just decide to personally destroy the opponent. Kerry, Cleland, Bill & Hillary. Now they want to do it to Obama.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1 008/Wright_TV.html

Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

Is this connected to the report by Politico.com regarding the  two internal memos sent by Pennsylvania Governor Edward Rendell.

The Hill is reporting that an internal poll from the Obama campaign in Pennsylvania shows him just two points ahead.

If this is true & even the Governor is asking for help, I hope the cavalry comes as soon as possible. I would bring in Barack, Hillary, Bill & Joe to Western PA for at least two more large rallies.

There is no reason we should lose PA. And we certainly cannot afford being up by low single digits in this state going into November 4. If Obama goes into PA leading by 1,2,3 or even 4% by November 3rd, that's not a good sign.

If there is a state that will somehow produce a Bradley Effect or last minute defections by white working class voters, PA would be right up there together with OH.

Obama should be able to fix this problem by coming back to PA with Hillary Clinton. Joe Biden & Bill Clinton should also comeback for a rally.

For people with a short memory. Gov. Rendell was ahead by around 23 to 25 points exactly two weeks before the election based on three independent polling organizations.

Come election day, Rendell carried PA by just  single digit of
about  8%.  PA is very capable of surprising the nation.

This is the last thing we need.

http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008/10/ 22/report-obama-internal-poll-shows-two- point-race-in-pennsylvania/

Obama catches McCain in Georgia

The poll on the presidential race in Georgia now mirrors the very tight senatorial race in Georgia.

Insider Advantage has just released its poll of Likely Voters in Georgia. Senator Obama is now within the margin of error of Senator McCain in that state.

McCain 49%
Obama 46%
10/9, 509 LV, 4%

This is incredible news for Senator Obama's campaign. Especially after a poll earlier today showing phenomenal results in West Virginia.

Since there was heavy turnout among African-Americans ( 30% of all early voters) who have already voted, the McCain camp should be very concerned.

Two polls on the senate race confirmed the very competitive race. One more poll on the Obama/McCain Georgia race should confirm this incredible surge by Senator Obama.

Let's Go Obama !

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/insideradv antage_ga_oh_109.php

Wake-up before Senate/House Dems go down

I hope Sen. Obama & his team start going into Serious Offense before this race turns into a very bad dream for the democratic party.

It looks like the fortunes of Democratic Senate & House candidates in battlground areas will directly depend on Obama's performance.

The signs are there. The unpopular Sen Liddy Dole is now the favorite in NC due to the McCain/Palin team's momentum.

Sen. Steven's has bolted in polls in Alaska after trailing big.

I suspect that new polls in places like CO,GA, NM, LA,OR will show similar trends.

4 out of 5 fresh polls out of Ohio show a clear McCain lead. Same in Missouri. McCain has also surged in Virginia & Michigan, Montana, North Dakota, & even Florida.

Now even Washington, WIsconsin & New Jersey are basically tied.  While PA is closer than ever.

All the battleground House races in these states above will be EXPOSED.

Obama was being sold in the primary by many of his ardent supporters as the Must Candidate if we wanted to win seats in the House & Senate.

Obama was supposed to win multiple Red states.

As of today, 7 weeks into election day- the map is slowly but surely looking Very Similar to Kerry in 04 & Gore's in 00.

The entire south is now looking Red & Mccain is now ahead in VA in a fresh poll.

The Midwest is now electorally favoring McCain. Ohio, Indiana, Missiouri, Michigan. McCain is now even ahead in Colorado & Nevada.

Many local Michigan democrats are very seriously acknowledging that Michigan may flip.

We are back trying to win Ohio while trying to hold on to Michigan & PA.

Yes, 7 1/2 weeks is enough time. Absolutely.

But 7 1/2 weeks also goes real quick in a Presidential race. Especially when things get nasty & both candidates start attacking each other back & forth.

There will never be a one sided, unilateral fight. Thus, turning around just 1%,2% or even 3% of voters to flip to one candidate gets tougher & tougher as we get to the last two weeks of the campaign.

I agree 100% with analysts supported by polls that show this Presidential Race for '08 will have Less Undecides than Gore vs. Bush in '00 & Bush vs. Kerry in '04.

If one candidate is ahead by 3%-5% in the last  two weeks, that candidate has a strong shot of holding that lead.

The differences between the Democrat Obama & Republica McCain
are just too much for most voters.

Young vs. Old, Black man vs. White Man, War Hero vs. Civilian, Pro-Life vs. Pro-Choice, Finish the job in Iraq vs. Pullout.

For one, most americans know ( or think they know) everything they need to know about McCain. Many know the Good, the Bad, & the Ugly about the man who has been in Politics for 3 decades.

Yes, there is still time. But many do not realize how close we are in terms of most voters fixing their mind on a candidate.

Obama better go on Offense

To even be in this predicament is just plain unbelievable.

If we cannot win in this Climate, forget about it.

The big talk in Latino radio across the country is that ...

Whites will decide this race. Not latinos, Not blacks.

Whites will determine Obama's fate.

Right now, he is simply not converting enough of them.

If the election were held today, Obama would very likely lose by a significant electoral count. It would be worse than Kerry in 04.

Wake-up Barack ! Go direct to McCain.

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